PredictiveHM

Why is smallpox so dangerous? 1) The case-fatality rate is very high. 2) No treatment (antiviral or vaccination) has been shown to be life-saving, once postules develop and 3) Aerosol spread by terrorist groups is theoretically possible (as in the U.S. government simulation, called Dark Winter, completed in 2001). The US Government developed a tiered vaccination program in 2003 to deal with the threat (vaccinated healthy volunteers will initially vaccinate first responders, and vaccination can proceed health caregivers, and then anyone who wishes vaccination in three phases, controlling the exposed individuals first.) Critics feel that vaccination is unnecessary, and that isolation and quarantine are sufficient.

In any scenario, the ability to identify sick individuals early in their course is paramount. Smallpox is easily misdiagnosed as chickenpox, influenza, and other viral infection unless a strong suspicion is harbored. The scenario of twenty suicidal terrorists infected simultaneously with Variola vera and dispersed on separate airline flights to various cities in the world at the onset of their "non-descript" symptoms of headache, aching muscles, nausea, backache and cough at the most contagious stage would allow disseminated infection 2 weeks before anyone was diagnosed with smallpox. Of course, the terrorist carriers would not seek any medical care and would remain anonymous until an autopsy revealed the cause of death. By that time, 20,000 people could be infected in various parts of the country. Hugh Pennington "Smallpox and bioterrorism" Bull World Health Organ vol.81 no.10 Genebra Oct. 2003

Predictive HM has a technology that can make early detection possible, allowing for rapid isolation and treatment. Several antiviral drugs are available (cidofovir, marboran). Vaccination must be given before the 4th day following exposure making early detection critical. Vaccination supplies are limited, therefore it will be equally important to know where to ship the supplies and to whom the vaccinations should be given. Presymtec technology can assist with both.                               BACK