PredictiveHM

Avian Influenza (H5N1) appears to have resumed its progression this year, as the World Health Organization reports at least 331 deaths of the 565 documented human cases of H5N1 since 2003. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization advised public health officials to improve surveillance and readiness around the world. Although the risks to human health is "unpredictable," there are definite signs that a mutant strain of Bird Flu is making inroads in the endemic areas of Viet Nam, Indonesia, India, China and Bangladesh, as well as Egypt. In Cambodia, every one of the eight people infected with H5N1 died so far this year.   Read more...

It was not until October of 1975 that in the village of Karelia in Bangladesh that a two-year-old girl, Rahima Banu, was isolated as the last naturally occurring case of Variola vera. A mishap at a microbiology lab in Birmingham, England, left Janet Parker, a medical photographer, dead on 9/11/78, after she was accidentally exposed to a Variola specimen. After the mishap, all specimens in the lab were destroyed, but remnants of highly virulent smallpox virus at the Soviet Union and US biological weapon labs remain intact. It is uncertain how many countries may have Variola specimens, but reports that North Korea, Iran, China, Cuba, India, Iran, Israel, and Pakistan are believable, setting the stage for a terrorist threat far more serious than 9/11/01.   Read more...

Contagion arrived in the theaters on 9/11. Perhaps this is also an ominous date (like the date of the last death from smallpox). Lauded by movie critics and scientists alike, Contagion promises to be to epidemiologists what Twister was to meteorologists. (see what CDC scientists have to say.) The excitement of life-threatening natural disasters has spawned many films. Our terrestrial microorganisms successfully controlled the human population until the twentieth century, but, due primarily to sanitation, immunization, antibiotics and public health initiatives, we survive better, longer and enjoy life in ways unparalleled in history, including enjoying the cinema. Now we may be faced with real viruses like the one in Contagion..         Read more...

A deadly disease from the Earth. How much dirt can you eat without getting sick? Who has not literally bit the dust while playing outdoor sports on the grass, or picked up a bite of valuable food accidentally dropped on the floor? Are raw milk, eggs and cider safe to consume? Almost everyone has done it, but few become ill. If there are certain microbes in the dirt, on the floor or in the food, you may get sick, and in the case of Listeria, 21% percent of those who are hospitalized never go home. Do you have Listeria in your home?         Read more...