PredictiveHM

Lauded by movie critics and scientists alike, Contagion promises to be to epidemiologists what Twister was to meteorologists. The excitement of life-threatening natural disasters has spawned many films, but infectious disease (horror/drama) movies (see list of 11 titles at the end of this article) have few blockbusters.

I Am Legend (2006), established on the premise that almost all human life was extinguished by a mutant laboratory virus, grossed over $256 million at the box office. This premise is not very realistic, since plagues, smallpox and Ebola have not depopulated the world in eons.

Outbreak (1995), an action drama about an Ebola-like African virus from 1967 that infects thousands of people in the USA, grossed $68 million. A special "serum E-1101" to cure the disease is magically manufactured to end the threat of firebombing the localized area of the outbreak. This film lacked scientific input.

The Andromeda Strain (1971), about an extraterrestrial microbe that eats rubber seals and kills in an hour, is entirely fantastical, based on the fear that space exploration might lead to our extinction. So far we have not discovered any extraterrestrials. There were not enough box office receipts to be archived.

Our terrestrial microorganisms successfully controlled the human population until the twentieth century, but, due primarily to sanitation, immunization, antibiotics and public health initiatives, we survive better, longer and enjoy life in ways unparalleled in history, including enjoying the cinema. Now we may be faced with real viruses like the one in Contagion. Contagion grossed $22.4 million in the first weekend.

Steven Soderbergh made his goal of an "ultrarealistic" film possible by 1) casting stars such as Gwyneth Paltrow, Matt Damon, Kate Winslet, Jude Law, and Laurence Fishburne (as characters they experience a 40% mortality rate), and 2) consulting experts like Dr. W. Ian Lipkin of Columbia University and Laurie Garrett of the Council of Foreign Relations. His portrayal of an Avian Flu-like virus, from a bat-swine antigenic shift, is eerily realistic, although the mortality rates of 20% in the movie are dwarfed by the actual 52% (331/565) of currently reported human H5N1.

The amazing identification and 3-D CAD pictures of the virus, with the adhesin key depicted in molecular structure a week after the discovery is rather fanciful, and the development and production of vaccine in six months is not something we are prepared to accomplish. Surely, we should be. It would take a billion dollars of investment and preparation, and without a clear threat (other than the inevitable shift of H5N1) Congress is not going to approve it.

Realistic people, realistic situations and realistic travel bring home the dangers of Avian Influenza. As character Dr. Cheever responds to a question about possible terrorist spreading the virus, he responds, "the birds have done it for us." Indeed, ducks are the prime culprits, conveying 18 Hemagglutinin types of influenza over the entire world without any anatine illness. Mixing live ducks with other birds, pigs, and various mammals in third-world open-air markets could be considered inadvertent germ warfare. Now that we understand this, we should enforce a change, and indeed, there is progress, but cultural attitudes about buying fresh meat is a historical custom that is difficult to change.

In the movie, attempts at quarantine seem rather feeble as the source of the virus takes six months to identify, and indeed, large scale quarantine is seldom effective . The governor of Illinois closes the state borders, and the personal pain is felt by every viewer as "too much, too late." Localized quarantine would be more effective, and PredictiveHm's technology (Presymtec) has the ability to identify infected individuals-- regardless of the cause--and allow isolation and treatment (when available) to control the spread.

Presymtec can be deployed rapidly and be used with other methods to control epidemics.     If Mr. Soderbergh had consulted us, we would have been glad to contribute to the solution which would have resulted in a more plausible resolution. In lieu of the movie, we will turn our energy toward real life spread of disease, fighting the inevitable march of disease against humanity.

Other Movies about Contagious Disease

Variola Vera (1972, 1982) Serbian
The Stand (1994)
12 Monkeys (1995)
Cabin Fever (2002)
28 Days Later (2002)
The Happening (2005)
Children of Men (2006)
Fatal Contact: Bird Flu in America (2006)

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